Por alza al salario mínimo, Cepal pronostica PIB de 2.1% este año

La Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (Cepal) señaló que existen factores que impulsarán el crecimiento económico del país, principalmente después de las decisiones del gobierno del Presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador, como la reducción de la inflación; sin embargo, el repunte de la economía será menor.

En conferencia para presentar el informe Situación y Perspectivas de la Economía Mundial 2019, Ramón Padilla, jefe de la Unidad de Desarrollo Económico de la Cepal, estimó que el crecimiento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) del país se ubicará en 2.1 por ciento este año, con riesgos a la baja.

Por su parte, Hugo Beteta, director de la sede Subregional en México de la Cepal, explicó que entre los riesgos externos, además de una desaceleración en Estados Unidos, están el Brexit, la batalla comercial entre el país vecino del norte y China, así como mayores aumentos en las tasas referenciales.

Sin embargo, destacó que también hay factores que impulsarán el crecimiento en el país, como la reducción de la inflación, el aumento al salario mínimo y el plan de inversiones en la región sur de la República.

En suma, los proyectos contra el robo de combustibles también es una señal positiva que ayudaría a generar es Estado de derecho que se necesita para atraer mayores inversiones. “Vemos con buenos ojos que se arranque con una visión de evitar el robo de combustible y el abuso de lo que es la riqueza de todos los mexicanos”, dijo.

De acuerdo con el informe elaborado por las comisiones económicas de la ONU a nivel global, la inflación en México bajaría de 4.8 por ciento en 2018, a 3.9 por ciento este año; la tasa de desempleo se mantendría prácticamente sin cambio, en 3.3 y 3.4 por ciento, respectivamente; lo mismo que el déficit fiscal en 2.0 por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB).

Beteta refirió que incluso con este ajuste en las perspectivas de crecimiento, México cuenta con una estructura económica sólida, en comparación con el resto de la región de América Latina, lo cual se refleja en la posibilidad de que, a nivel regional, América Latina crezca 1.7 por ciento.

“La tasa de 2.1 por ciento que estamos pronosticando de crecimiento para México para 2019 tiene que ver con el comercio exterior y la volatilidad financiera; aunque no está ajeno a los embates de la coyuntura global”, comentó.

En relación con lo anterior, hay otro aspecto que podría afectar el crecimiento económico de nuestro país y tiene que ver con la expansión de la economía estadounidense, la cual se percibe, alcance un crecimiento de 2.5 por ciento, cifra por debajo de 2.9 registrado en 2018; este crecimiento podría repercutir en la recepción de remesas que entran a México.

Al reiterar el tema de la inflación, el directivo señaló que el Índice de Precios al Consumidor ha comenzado a converger al rango meta del Banco de México, luego de dos años fuera de este objetivo, debido a la repercusión de la depreciación del peso y los precios de la gasolina.

Resaltó además el actuar de la administración federal, acerca de arrancar su administración con una visión de eliminar el robo y abuso de combustibles.

Los recursos que dejen de robarse servirán para impulsar el desarrollo humano de los mexicanos, al destinarlos a lograr una cobertura universal en materia de salud y educación, infraestructura de calidad y la transformación productiva para la igualdad.

Beteta comentó que los organismos dependientes de la ONU también ven positiva la aceleración de la inversión pública anunciada por el gobierno y el reciente aumento al salario mínimo, pues eleva el ingreso disponible de la población; estas medidas tienen un efecto positivo en el crecimiento económico del país.

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